Will Shibir’s Triumph Reshape Bangladesh’s Political Landscape?

 The landslide victory of Islami Chhatra Shibir, a student wing of Jamat-e-Islami, in the Dhaka University Central Students' Union (DUCSU) and Jahangirnagar University Student Union (JAKSU) elections has made some people, including Islamists, happy, while others, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and anti-Islam groups, are worried or concerned. However, it has surprised almost everyone. Indeed, it is surprising because the student organization that just a few days ago could not show its own identity in all universities, including Dhaka University and Jahangirnagar University, has achieved such a victory. It is really surprising.

Some people are happy with this result because, after several decades, the monopoly of two dominant student groups, Chhatra League, the student wing of Awami League, and Chhatra Dal, the student wing of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), at Dhaka University has come to an end. However, the question remains: why are many people worried or concerned about Shibir’s victory?

The main reason for this is probably the continuous propaganda of the Indian media. Although the people of Bangladesh love Islam, they have neither tried nor imagined empowering Islamist parties. The Indian media has conveyed a different message to them, namely that if any Islamist party comes to power in Bangladesh, they will confine women to their homes, force them to wear the hijab, deprive them of their freedom, and so on.

Not all those who are happy with Shibir's victory are Jamaat supporters. Many among them are happy with a fundamental change in student politics at Dhaka University and Jahangirnagar University Student Union (JAKSU). They are fed up with the long-standing oppression and lawlessness of the Awami League and BNP student organizations. Another group is happy with the victory of anti-India Islamists in Bangladesh after a long time, because they see India as the root of all problems in Bangladesh.

The Core Question: Can Student Triumphs Translate to National Votes?

Now the question is, will the victories of Jamaat-backed student organizations in DUCSU and JAKSU influence the upcoming general election? Has Jamaat-e-Islami managed to gain enough influence over public opinion that people would choose them over other political parties?

Jamaat’s Strategy: Decades of Quiet Social Work and Discipline

The party was banned multiple times at the advice of India. Although the party officially refrained from political activities in Bangladesh since 1972, its affiliated organizations continued to work quietly in almost every district and sub-district of the country. In 1979, Jamaat began working in the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar by providing medical services. At different times, they came forward during natural disasters in various districts. In short, even if not politically active, they remained busy with social work. During this time, the party also tried to increase its membership. They recruited students into their student wing across different educational institutions. They had a reputation for conducting activities in universities with organizational discipline, a quality that other student groups lacked.

The Historical Electoral Failure of Jamaat-e-Islami

The question now is whether the victories of Shibir in DUCSU and JAKSU will enable Jamaat-e-Islami to win the upcoming general election. To answer this, we must examine how successful Jamaat-e-Islami has been as a political party in the past, both in Bangladesh and in the erstwhile Pakistan. Objectively speaking, Jamaat-e-Islami historically could not gain much advantage as a political party during the East Pakistan era.

A Dreadful Period: Sheikh Hasina’s Crackdown on Jamaat (2009–2024)

Later, when the Awami League, supported by India, came to power for the first time, they did not take strict measures against Jamaat. However, in their second tenure, they attempted to uproot Jamaat from politics. Several top leaders of Jamaat were tried at the International Crimes Tribunal, with some receiving death sentences and others life imprisonment. In essence, the rule of Sheikh Hasina (2009–2024) was a dreadful period for Jamaat.

  Infiltration and Building a New Identity

Although Jamaat was ousted from formal politics during Sheikh Hasina’s rule (their registration was canceled at this time), they continued their activities. Islami Chhatra Shibir strategically infiltrated other student organizations (such as the Chhatra League or Chhatra Dal), working alongside students and building their identity. They have reaped the benefits of this strategy, and we are witnessing those results today.

But will the identity of Islami Chhatra Shibir help Jamaat in a nationwide election? In large-scale elections, the victory of any political party depends on the prior recognition of its leaders, their credibility, and their experience in governance. As a party, Jamaat-e-Islami remains untested, although a few of its leaders did serve as ministers nearly three decades ago, none of whom are alive today.

  Collapse of Awami League Unites Islamist Factions

Unity among Islamist groups has always been debated. From the outside, they may look united, but in reality, they are often divided. Different factions use theological differences against each other to gain power and weaken rivals. In the late 1970s, there was an attempt to bring Islamist forces together, but it failed. As a result, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB) was formed in 1987 as a separate party.

Now, after long discussions and private negotiations among Islamist leaders, it seems these groups are closer to unity than ever before. The fall of Sheikh Hasina has worked as a unifying factor, giving them common goals and benefits to work together.

  New Contest Between Islamists and the BNP

For decades, politics in Bangladesh was led by two big parties — the BNP and the Awami League (AL). Together, they won about 70–80% of the vote. Other parties like Jatiya Party (JP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) usually got the rest. But after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s AL government on August 5 and her escape from the country, the political situation has changed completely. The AL has been banned for alleged mass killings. Its place in the center-left of politics is now empty. The JP, which supported AL during its 16 years in power, has lost credibility and is struggling to stay relevant.

In the past, elections were mainly between the BNP (center-right) and AL (center-left). But this time, it looks like the contest will be between the Islamists (right) and the BNP (center-right). The Islamists’ strong role in the July Revolution has given them new legitimacy in the eyes of the people. Bangladesh may now see a parliament where Islamic values play a much bigger role than before. The long-term results of this shift are still uncertain.

The Islamist Agenda: Advocating for Proportional Representation (PR)

The Islamists’ call for a proportional representation (PR) voting system is part of this strategy. While it serves their political goals, it also has practical benefits. For example, it reduces the influence of money and muscle power, since candidates cannot easily predict results. Under PR, it is very hard for one party to get an absolute majority, which means less chance of authoritarian rule like Hasina’s.

The PR Debate: BNP Opposition and the Threat of Electoral Deadlock

At the moment, BNP is the most popular party, with more than 40% support. Under the current first-past-the-post system, they could win a majority in parliament. But under PR, BNP would not get that majority. Instead, smaller parties would gain seats in proportion to their vote share, creating a more diverse and inclusive parliament. This is why PR benefits the Islamists but not the BNP.

BNP reacted quickly to IAB’s demand. Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman warned that PR could divide the country instead of uniting it. BNP leader Salahuddin Ahmed also argued that those pushing for PR and for local elections first actually want to delay or block the national election. This debate over the electoral system has become a key issue. If the major parties cannot agree, it could lead to election delays and a deadlock in parliament.