The issue of water between India and Pakistan is considered one of the most dangerous environmental and political conflicts in South Asia. Geopolitics intersects here with water security and the global economy. The roots of the crisis lie in the sharing of transboundary river waters, particularly the Indus River and its tributaries, which was organized by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The World Bank brokered and guaranteed this treaty, signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan on September 19, 1960. US President Eisenhower at the time described it as a bright spot in a dark world, regulating the flow of the Indus waters to Pakistan. Under this treaty, the two countries share the six rivers that form the Indus Basin (1).

Despite the agreement's success in securing water distribution for decades, escalating political tensions between the two countries, climate change, and demographic pressures have begun to weaken its effectiveness. This threatens to turn the crisis into an open conflict with potentially catastrophic consequences for regional stability and the global economy.

First: Background of the Water Dispute Between India and Pakistan

The Indus River Basin includes six main rivers, all of which originate in or pass through India before reaching Pakistan. This leaves Pakistan in a vulnerable water position. Through the Indus Waters Treaty, India was granted control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan was granted exclusive usage rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). However, India has recently begun implementing dam and water storage projects on the western rivers, claiming this falls under the non-consumptive uses permitted by the treaty. Pakistan views these projects as a direct threat to its water and food security, especially since more than 80% of its agriculture depends on the Indus River.

Second: Reasons for the Escalation of the Crisis

1. Population and Climate Pressures: Both countries are experiencing tremendous population growth, increasing the demand for water. This is compounded by the effects of climate change, from declining monsoon rains to the melting of Himalayan glaciers, threatening long-term droughts or devastating floods.
2. Political and Security Tensions: The deterioration of bilateral relations, especially after security tensions and conflicts in Kashmir, has politicized the water issue. This undermines any attempts at constructive dialogue on managing shared resources.
3. Exploiting Water as a Pressure Tactic: India has repeatedly hinted at the possibility of amending or suspending the Indus Waters Treaty as a reaction to hostile actions from Pakistan. The latter considers this an indirect declaration of war.

Third: Scenario of a Water War and its Impact on the Global Economy

In the event of an armed conflict between India and Pakistan over water, the repercussions will not be limited to the region but will extend to the global economy for several reasons:

1. Nuclear Risk: Both countries possess nuclear weapons, and any escalation could turn into a catastrophic confrontation, leading to global instability and a rise in energy and precious metal prices due to security concerns.
2. Disruption of Supply Chains: South Asia is a major production center for textiles, pharmaceuticals, and technical services. Any disruption in the region will directly affect global supplies, especially given the dependence of many countries on imports from India and Pakistan.
3. Capital Flight: The outbreak of war between the two countries could lead to a decline in investor confidence in emerging Asian markets and cause sharp fluctuations in financial markets, particularly in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the Karachi Stock Exchange.
4. Humanitarian Crisis and Forced Migration: War will lead to mass displacement, potentially creating humanitarian crises in neighboring countries and increasing the burden on international aid, straining the resources of UN and relief organizations.

The water crisis between India and Pakistan represents a stark example of what environmental disputes can lead to in the absence of international cooperation. Although the Indus Treaty was a historic achievement in its time, the changes of the era require its reconsideration and activation with a new spirit of partnership based on transparency and integration. The international community, especially the United Nations and the World Bank, must play a greater role in mediation and provide technical support to ensure the sustainability of water resources and avoid conflict scenarios, given their serious repercussions not only for India and Pakistan but for the global economy as a whole.

Fourth: Proposed Solutions to the Water Crisis Between India and Pakistan

1. Reviving International Agreements and Strengthening their Implementation Mechanisms:

Although the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remains in place, new challenges necessitate the development of flexible implementation mechanisms that include monitoring water projects and exchanging data with high transparency. An independent joint body under international supervision could be established to ensure compliance with the treaty's provisions and update them when necessary.

2. Expanding the Scope of Bilateral Dialogue Under International Auspices:

Official and unofficial dialogue channels between the two sides should be activated, with the possibility of involving international parties such as the World Bank or the United Nations as neutral mediators to support confidence-building and facilitate understanding on technical and political water issues.

3. Establishing an Early Warning System and Exchanging Hydrological Data:

By sharing information on rainfall rates, snowmelt, and river water volumes, the two countries can predict potential crises such as droughts or floods and cooperate in addressing them, reducing the chances of escalation.

4. Adopting Integrated and Sustainable Water Resources Management:

It is essential to move from policies of competition to policies of partnership in river management by adopting modern irrigation technologies, improving water use efficiency, and reducing losses, thereby achieving water security for both parties without threatening the interests of the other.

5. Cooperating in Building Joint Energy and Water Projects:

Constructing joint dams or power generation stations can be a way to reduce tension and promote mutual interests between the two countries, provided they are managed transparently and ensure a fair distribution of their returns.

6. Involving Civil Society and Academic Institutions in Building Water Peace:

Universities, research centers, and non-governmental organizations can contribute to raising awareness about the importance of cooperation in managing transboundary waters and spreading a culture of environmental peace among peoples.

7. Linking the Water Issue to Regional Development Issues:

Water should be viewed as a driver of development, not a tool for conflict, by linking water security to food, health, and social security, thereby reinforcing the logic of cooperation over the logic of conflict.

Therefore, resolving the water crisis between neighboring India and Pakistan requires a mature political will characterized by awareness and integrity, and a strategic vision that transcends historical differences towards a shared future based on cooperation and integration. It also necessitates the international community bearing its responsibilities in supporting water peace efforts, given their paramount importance for regional stability and the global economy.
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(1) Dimensions of the Water Resources Crisis in Pakistan, Muhammad Fawzi, Asian Horizons, Issue Two, December 2017, p. 213.